nymarketspy
ValueWalk
10y tested the top at 4.33%, and retreated back to the 4.23% support – but S&P 500 kept declining yesterday. The dollar and real assets were though less determined to move correspondingly, which means that stocks may hold up better today than the 4,365 (another suppozt zone, its upper border) hints at, equals we wouldn‘t get orderly selling continuation or acceleration into a crash till the closing bell. At the same time, this data light day won‘t be a genuinely VIX crush Friday one – the buyers can reasonably target 4,390 at best. The warning sign is accelerating decline in XLK below $166.50 ...
ValueWalk
Similarly to Thu CPI, S&P 500 couldn‘t maintain a modest retracement following the disappointing manufacturing data, but still strong retail sales. Tech failed to react to the reversal in yields (10y back to 4.21% on the close yesterday, and retreating even more today) – arguably the decline was less of a result of banking downgrades echo than it was thanks to the China rate cut, liquidity mop up (preparations to defend CNY), and growing risks within the shadow banking sectors as much as growth prospects. Hence the renewed calls for increasing domestic Chinese consumption. Today‘s housing and ...
ValueWalk
S&P 500 did the compulsory little rebound yesterday – one I didn‘t trust from the get go, yet maxed it out for subscribers enjoying also the Intraday Signals. Stocks had been gradually deteriorating, and it became clear at the onset of European session that we‘re in for a risk-off day taking its toll on most economically sensitive real assets. Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times (notifications on aren’t enough) – combine with subscribing to my Youtube channel, and of course Telegram that always delivers my extra intraday calls (head off to Twitter to talk...
ValueWalk
S&P 500 couldn‘t keep the fine rebound as all eyes were on “good that the job market is still OK, but maybe the Fed would stop hiking now” interpretation of weaker than expected non-farm payrolls. Bonds certainly played ball, but it was more than the dollar that pulled stocks down – all sectors declined from whichever high they had reached intraday, in spite of yields not moving adversely. It‘s that oil prices, gasoline and diesel (heating oil) have appreciated double digits in July, and wage pressures aren‘t weakening much either – take the base effect of Jul 2022 CPI data being removed (it w...
ValueWalk
S&P 500 reversed right on cue yesterday, and the retreat before Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) earnings was duly bought. Next, it was up to the run up to the non-farm payrolls – stocks froze with fear for which I saw no reason. We got no bad miss in NFPs, and that cleared the path to my a) scenario tweeted in advance. Sectoral performance was good enough already yesterday, and the path to resumption of stock market rise, is clear for today – with returning rotational strength. Subscribers of all three publications are benefiting – and as the notion of rising yields (Treasuries are to gain today) puts...
ValueWalk
S&P 500 couldn‘t take advantage of respite in rising yields after US open as there was no reprieve. No flight to safety to Treasuries to which there‘s no deep enough alternative – yields continued on their pre-Fitch path, and 10-y closed at almost 4.10%. It‘s tech and prior sectoral leaders than need this respite badly – yet odds are neither long-dated rates nor the dollar have peaked yet, which is creating (over time) increasingly intolerable position for servicing the debt when the two nearest quarters the Treasury plans to issue almost $2T in fresh debt only (not mentioning rollovers). Thus...
ValueWalk
S&P 500 went through a similar daily pattern as on Monday – the weak tech, XLF and XLV telltlae signs didn‘t lie – this and gold with oil clues talked amply in yesterday‘s video. The slowly cracking tech breadth underscores the battle of narratives, the focus – soft landing vs. return of inflation forcing the Fed to raise again – as much with yesterday‘s manufacturing PMIs as with today‘s non-farm payrolls employment change. With or without Fitch downgrade, it‘s yields on the long end that carry greatest significance. The long, AI-driven resilience in tech is getting duly challenged (hello Top...
ValueWalk
S&P 500 made two good intraday returns, but was overpowered by waning rotational strength and internal tech deterioration. Neither financials nor healthcare did their job too well – and when both precious metals and crypto start paying attention to rising yields and dollar, the day is set to be a risk-off one. The notion of manufacturing bottom being in, is what can help stocks stem the developing selling pressure. Rising yields would though keep a lid on tech and many real assets – USD has very good prospects of breaking above 102 successfully. In today‘s session, the very optimistic and lagg...
ValueWalk
S&P 500 continued with the buy the dip reaction through core PCE, and both yields and USD shook off BoJ pretty fast. The prevaling narrative still is that the Fed managed to engineer a soft landing and that recession has been avoided within the disinflationary context. This is part of the explanation for why declining LEIs and inverted YC are still being ignored as much as the end of corona era policies (student loans) and continued depletion of excess savings – together with declining tax receipts and tightening bank lending standards, omens of recession. Rate hikes aren‘t over, and we‘re in ...
ValueWalk
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