monetarypolicy
A bummer of a jobs report released Friday morning triggered a sharp drop in the stock market and stocked fear of a coming recession—thanks to something known as the "Sahm Rule." So what is that? It is named after economist Claudia Sahm, who served as a top economic advisor during the Obama administration and identified a historical indicator of coming recessions in 2019: every time since 1970 that the three-month moving average of the U.S. unemployment rate is more than half a percentage point above the lowest three-month moving average from the previous year, a recession has soon followed. Th...
Reason
The end of cash has been heralded for years—mostly by government officials eager to end the expense of minting coins and printing banknotes while pushing transactions to digital forms that can be tracked and taxed. The transformation has met varying degrees of acceptance or resistance from people around the globe. But Australians appear to be eagerly advancing down the road towards a cash-free world. Disappearing Banknotes and Coins"Cash was once a staple in the economy, but it's fast becoming a relic of the past," according to an April report on Australia's financial evolution from SBSNews. "...
Reason
If there is one thing everyone wants, it’s economic vision. But that’s difficult to attain. All the best economists admit that they don’t know what’s going to happen next. Even after their long, exhaustive years of academic study, they all graduated with blindfolds on. And yet, here we are asking economists to help us solve our biggest problems. Q4 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more So, how do you develop X-ray economic vision? The same way engineers are able to predict the future for bridges, buildings and just about anything else they build. They use science and apply it to make p...
ValueWalk
By Mohammed Kudrati The Reserve Bank of India [RBI] today hiked the policy repo rate by 50 basis points, from 4.40% to 4.90%. This is the second hike in the policy repo rate in just more than a month, with the previous hike of 40 basis points coming in an unscheduled move in May. With this hike, the repo rate is now up 90 basis points from the 4% mark that it was 36 days ago. RBI also hiked the cash reserve ratio (CRR) in the previous announcement. The repo rate is the rate at which banks borrow from the RBI on a short-term basis. Also Read:RBI Hikes Repo Rate, Cash Reserve Ratio In Unschedule...
BOOM Live
The team at iVest+, the next generation trading platform for stocks and options traders, is predicting a choppy to negative response from the market to the upcoming earnings season. Insights include: Q4 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more With the bond market now focused on rate hikes and inflation, it is likely that stocks in many key sectors will issue forward guidance that is not as positive as the results of the last two years have been. Higher interest rates have consequences to lending and borrowing, especially in key sectors like the technology and banking sectors. While highe...
ValueWalk
2021 was bad for gold. Unfortunately, 2022 doesn’t look any better, especially at the beginning. The end, however, gives the yellow metal some hope… Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Bye, bye 2021! It definitely wasn’t a year of gold. As the chart below shows, the yellow metal lost 5% of its value over the last twelve months, declining from $1,887.60 on December 30, 2020, to $1,794.25 on December 29, 2021. Thus, the gold bulls won’t miss 2021, I guess. What about me? Well, I correctly predicted in January that “gold’s performance in 2021 could be worse than last year”. However, ...
ValueWalk
David Neuhauser of hedge fund Livermore Partners on CNBC discusses that slowing big tech performance a tell-tale sign of things to come. Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more To Partners and Friends, 2021 is nearing its end and it sure has been an eventful one.. And later today, the FED meets to determine if tighter monetary policy needs to occur sooner than planned. Given the fact inflation has not been transitory and is in fact, a macro sustainable force. That said, and given where sketchy corporations and Governments sit with bloated debt on their balance sheets, tightening monet...
ValueWalk
Caution is once again evident in equity markets on Wednesday as we await the final Fed rate decision of the year. Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Once again we find ourselves in an environment in which investors have perhaps got carried away with some early promising reports on the severity of the omicron variant and have not fully appreciated the downside economic risks facing the global economy. Central banks have little choice but to start tightening monetary policy in the majority of cases, as inflation continues to rise to uncomfortable levels, become more widespread, and...
ValueWalk
“UK GDP data shows the engine of recovery is still spluttering, with the economy only inching ahead on its path back to full health. Although the September reading on output came in a couple of notches higher than expected at 0.6%, a downgrade of the growth picture in the summer showed just how much of a struggle there is for the economy to regain its pre-pandemic level. The sluggish picture is against the backdrop of the easing of social distancing regulations, offering fresh indications that many companies have struggled with the ongoing supply chain crisis and labour shortages. Nevertheless...
ValueWalk
While the greenback‘s failed breakout on Nov. 4 may seem bearish, it faced a similar situation in August and October, only to recover and achieve new highs. Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more The USD Index Responds Negatively To The ECB's PolicyAfter the USD Index’s negative response to the ECB’s monetary policy meeting on Oct. 28, I warned on Oct. 29 that dollar bears were unlikely to celebrate for much longer. I wrote: Based on the rather random comment during the conference, the traders panicked and bought the EUR/USD, which triggered declines in the USD Index (after all, the ...
ValueWalk
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