interestrate
The UK economy in 2024 presents a blend of promising growth figures and underlying concerns, leaving many to wonder: Is this a sustainable rebound or merely a temporary upswing? While the country has shown resilience in recovering from recent economic challenges, a closer look reveals potential vulnerabilities that could undermine this progress. Key factors such as retail performance during the men’s Euros football tournament, political uncertainty, and the direction of inflation are crucial to understanding the true state of the UK economy. Economic growth: Strong numbers, but for how long?In...
Invezz
Economists at global investment giant Goldman Sachs have cut their probability of a recession in the United States within the next year to 20%, citing recent retail sales and unemployment data. In an Aug. 17 report to its clients seen by Bloomberg, Goldman’s economist, led by Jan Hatzius, said the probability is down from their previous estimate of 25% and “would probably cut our recession probability back to 15%, where it stood for almost a year” if the US jobs report for August set to publish on Sept. 6 “looks reasonably good.” The economists added they were “more confident” that the Federal...
Cointelegraph
Brazil’s economic landscape is showing promising signs of recovery and growth, as reflected by the latest data from the IBC-Br Index of Economic Activity. The most recent figures from Banco Central do Brasil reveal a notable 1.4% increase in the IBC-Br for June 2024, marking the first substantial growth since February 2023. This uptick underscores a potential economic boom for the country, driven by resilient performance across key sectors. The IBC-Br Index is a critical gauge of Brazil’s economic health, serving as an early indicator of GDP trends. It tracks output across agriculture, industr...
Invezz
In a development that has brought some relief to concerns about the US economy, fewer Americans applied for state unemployment aid in recent weeks than economists had anticipated. This trend has helped to ease fears that the US labour market is slowing down faster than expected, which could potentially push the economy into a recession. Unemployment claims lower than expectedAccording to data released by the US Department of Labor on Thursday, the number of initial unemployment claims for the week ending August 10 stood at 227,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis. This figure is the lowest in ju...
Invezz
UK inflation increased to 2.2% in July, marking the first rise in inflation this year, but the increase was less than economists had expected. According to data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Wednesday, the annual increase in consumer prices was below the 2.4% rise that the Bank of England (BoE) had anticipated and also fell short of the 2.3% prediction from economists polled by Reuters. Lower-than-expected inflationThe July inflation figure surpasses the BoE’s 2% target and represents the first uptick in inflation this year. This follows a period of stabilization wher...
Invezz
Veteran investor David Roche has issued a cautionary forecast for the stock market, predicting a potential bear market in 2025. Roche, a prominent expert at Quantum Strategy, points to the growing bubble in artificial intelligence (AI) as a key factor that could drive a significant market downturn. According to Roche, the exuberance surrounding AI may lead to a sharp correction, potentially causing the S&P 500 to fall by up to 20% from its current highs. David Roche expects the Fed to lower interest ratesDavid Roche also expects the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates at a smaller-than-exp...
Invezz
Recent fears of a US recession have been fueled by a disappointing employment report, which triggered a sharp global market sell-off. While markets have partially recovered, concerns about the economy’s trajectory persist. However, experts suggest that these recession fears may be overstated. Here’s a closer look at the current economic landscape and expert perspectives on the potential for a downturn. Analyzing the jobs dataThe latest US employment report has raised red flags, showing weak job growth and a slight increase in the unemployment rate. Goldman Sachs, however, believes that the con...
Invezz
Donald Trump has reignited a longstanding debate about the independence of the Federal Reserve (Fed) by calling for presidential oversight of interest rate decisions. During a press conference at his Mar-a-Lago residence, the former president expressed his desire to have a say in when the Fed adjusts interest rates, a move that could fundamentally alter the US financial system. Trump’s frustration mirrors a growing discontent among the American public over the Fed’s slow pace in lowering interest rates. However, the implications of such a policy shift extend far beyond political posturing. If ...
Invezz
The USD/MXN exchange rate has erased most of its Monday’s gains as traders focus on the upcoming Banxico interest rate decision. The pair, which soared to 20.24 on Monday amid the unwinding of the Japanese yen carry trade, has retreated to 19.30. Banxico central bank decisionThe USD/MXN pair wil be in the spotlight as the Mexican central bank delivers its August decision. This decision will come after thebank started cuttng rates in its March meeting when it slashed rates by 25 basis points to 11%. Since then, the bank has left rates unchanged at 11% in the last three consecutive meetings as i...
Invezz
The Australian dollar to USD (AUD/USD) exchange rate continued its sell-off on Thursday as focus shifted to Friday’s US non-farm payroll (NFP) data and Tuesday’s Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision. It crashed to a low of 0.6520, its lowest swing since May 1st. US nonfarm payrolls data aheadThe biggest AUD/USD news of this week was Wednesday’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision. In it, as we wrote earlier, the bank decided to leave interest rates unchanged between 5.25% and 5.50%. Rates have remained in this range since last year. In its statement, the bank noted that th...
Invezz
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